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BBL Valuation Attractive! FSSIA Sets New TP at ฿194, Expects Loan Growth
P/E 6.08 YIELD 5.90 ราคา 144.00 (-1.71%)
Key Highlights:
FSSIA maintains a BUY rating for Bangkok Bank (BBL TB) with a new target price of ฿194, up from ฿184. The valuation is undemanding at 0.5x 2025E P/BV, with expected catalysts including loan expansion, resilient Net Interest Margin (NIM), strong asset quality, and lower credit costs.
Positive Catalysts for BBL:
FSSIA forecasts positive catalysts for BBL, including:
1. Room for loan expansion driven by domestic corporate and international loan segments (especially in Indonesia and Vietnam).
2. Resilient NIM, despite an expected policy interest rate cut to 2.0% in 2025E.
3. Cost-to-income ratio reaching approximately 47-48% in 2025-26E due to loan expansion.
4. Strong asset quality allowing for lower credit costs of 116bp in 2025E compared to 130bp in 2024.
Loan Growth and Asset Quality:
BBL targets loan growth of 3-4% in 2025, driven by corporate and international loans. Demand for corporate loans is expected to be fueled by digital transformation, supply chain relocation to ASEAN, ESG trends, and infrastructure investments. The bank's NPL ratio significantly decreased to 3.19% in 4Q24, leading to expectations of lower credit costs in 2025-26.
Earnings Forecast and Target Price:
FSSIA has raised its 2025-26 earnings forecast by 8% due to lower loan loss provisions, a reduced cost-to-income ratio, and higher operating income. The new target price of ฿194 is based on a GGM valuation, implying 0.63x 2025E P/BV. FSSIA believes BBL offers an attractive share price upside, maintaining its BUY rating.